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Preprints and Reprints

Working Papers

• "Exit Polling and Racial Bloc Voting: Combining Individual-Level and R x C Ecological Data" (with Jim Greiner).
• "Choosing an Identifying Set of Matching or Conditioning Variables" (with Adam Glynn).
• "What Can Be Learned from a Simple Table: Bayesian Inference and Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Effects from 2 x 2 and 2 x 2 x K Tables in the Presence of Unmeasured Confounding."
• "Non-parametric Mechanisms and Causal Modeling" (with Adam Glynn).
• "Improving Judicial Ideal Point Estimates with a More Realistic Model of Opinion Content" (with Jong Hee Park and Andrew Martin).
• "Bayesian Inference for Semiparametric Quantal Response Equilibrium Models" (with Anton Westveld).

 

Published Articles

• "How Not To Lie with Judicial Votes: Misconceptions, Measurement, and Models" (forthcoming) California Law Review  (with Daniel E. Ho).
• "Identifying Intra-Party Voting Blocs in the UK House of Commons"  (forthcoming) Journal of the American Statistical Association (with Arthur Spirling).
• "The Scythe Statistical Library: An Open Source C++ Library for Statistical Computation"  (forthcoming) Journal of Statistical Software (with Dan Pemstein and Andrew Martin).
• "MCMCpack: Markov Chain Monte Carlo in R" (forthcoming) Journal of Statistical Software (with Andrew Martin and Jong Hee Park).
• "How To Analyze Political Attention With Minimal Assumptions And Costs" (2010) American Journal of Political Science (with Burt Monroe, Mike Colaresi, Mike Crespin, and Drago Radev). This is an electronic version of an article published in the American Journal of Political Science complete citation information for the final version of the paper, as published in the print edition of the American Journal of Political Science, is available on the Blackwell Synergy online delivery service, accessible via the journal’s website at www.blackwellpublishing.com/journals/ajps or http://www.blackwell-synergy.com. 
• "An Introduction to the Augmented Inverse Propensity Weighted Estimator" (2010) Political Analysis (with Adam Glynn). 
• "Did a Switch in Time Save Nine?" (2010) Journal of Legal Analysis (with Daniel E. Ho)
• "Circuit Effects: How the Norm of Federal Judicial Experience Biases the Supreme Court" (2009) University of Pennsylvania Law Review (with Lee Epstein, Andrew D. Martin, and Jeffrey A. Segal).
• "Viewpoint Diversity and Media Consolidation: An Empirical Study" (2009) Stanford Law Review (with Daniel E. Ho).
• "R x C Ecological Inference: Bounds, Correlations, Flexibility, and Transparency of Assumptions" (2009) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (with Jim Greiner).
• "Fightin' Words: Lexical Feature Selection and Evaluation for Identifying the Content of Political Conflict" (2009) Political Analysis (with Burt Monroe and Michael Colaresi) A dynamic visualization from the paper can be found here. 
• "Measuring Explicit Political Positions of Media" (2008) The Quarterly Journal of Political Science (with Dan Ho).
• "Improving the Presentation and Interpretation of Online Ratings Data with Model-Based Figures" (2008) The American Statistician (with Dan Ho). A longer version of the paper with additional figures and details can be found here.
• "Tracking the Dynamic Evolution of Participant Salience in a Discussion" (2008) Proceedings of COLING 2008 (with Ahmed Hassan, Anthony Fader, Michael Crespin, Burt Monroe, Michael Colaresi, and Dragomir Radev)  "On the Perils of Drawing Inferences about Supreme Court Justices from their First Few Years of Service" (2008) Judicature (with Lee Epstein, Andrew Martin, and Jeff Segal).  

• "The Bush Imprint on the Supreme Court: Why Conservatives Should Continue to Yearn and Liberals Should Not Fear" (2008) Tulsa Law Review (with Lee Epstein, Andrew Martin, and Jeff Segal).

• "Assessing Preference Change on the U.S. Supreme Court" (2007) Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization (with Andrew Martin).

• "Ideological Drift among Supreme Court Justices: Who, When, and How Important?" (2007) Northwestern University Law Review(with Lee Epstein, Andrew Martin, and Jeff Segal)

• "MavenRank: Identifying Influential Members of the US Senate Using Lexical Centrality" (2007) Proceedings of the Conference of Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing (with Tony Fader, Drago Radev, Mike Crespin, Burt Monroe, and Mike Colaresi).

• "Applied Bayesian Inference in R using MCMCpack" (2006) R News (with Andrew Martin).

• "The Median Justice on the U.S. Supreme Court" (2005)) North Carolina Law Review (with Lee Epstein and Andrew Martin).

• "Bayesian Factor Analysis for Mixed Ordinal and Continuous Responses" (2004) Political Analysis.

• "Competing Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decisionmaking" (2004) Perspectives on Politics (with Andrew Martin, Ted Ruger, and Pauline Kim).

• "The Supreme Court Forecasting Project: Legal and Political Science Approaches to Predicting Supreme Court Decision-Making" (2004) Columbia Law Review (with Andrew Martin, Ted Ruger, and Pauline Kim).

• "An Integrated Computational Model of Multiparty Electoral Competition" (2002) Statistical Science (with Andrew Martin).

• "Dynamic Ideal Point Estimation via Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the U.S. Supreme Court, 1953-1999" (2002) Political Analysis (with Andrew Martin).

• "Vote Choice in a Multi-Party Democracy: A Test of Competing Theories and Models" (1999) American Journal of Political Science (with Andrew Martin and Andy Whitford).

• "Multiparty Electoral Competition in the Netherlands and Germany: A Model Based on Multinomial Probit" (1998) Public Choice (with Norman Schofield, Andrew Martin, and Andy Whitford).

• "Using Computational Methods to Perform Counterfactual Analyses of Formal Theories" (1996) Rationality and Society (with Andrew Martin).

"Identifying Intra-Party Voting Blocs in the UK House of Commons" (with Arthur Spirling).

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